In a follow-up to the previous post about automation eliminating jobs for humans, Wired magazine reported on the autonomous Mercedes Benz semi truck . Although Mercedes Benz claims the driver will become a ‘Transport Manager’ in a relaxing spacious cabin, if you start to think through the usage scenario of this truck, it’s quite obvious there will be no one behind the wheel.
Mercedes Benz states,
The challenge now,” Bernhard [Daimler board member for trucks and buses] says, “is to leverage this momentum and to continue our open dialogue with all parties involved, so that in ten years’ time the autonomously driving truck will indeed have become an accepted feature on our roads.
10 years time. That is not when the automation will begin. That is their target for it to “become an accepted feature”.
Let’s assume there WILL be a “Transport Manager” in the cabin…
The risk associated with the job is drastically reduced with an autonomous truck. The level of skill needed for that job will be significantly reduced. As a result, the wages for that job will be significantly reduced. Additionally, the labor pool is significantly increased if the semi truck is autonomous.
Drivers that retire, because they can no longer focus for long stretches, are now able to get back on the road. That facilitates an increasing labor pool competing for a decreasing number of jobs. And that always drives down wages.
Why will there not be a Transport Manager in the cabin?
The truck will be fully automated and can run as long as it has fuel. Eliminating the cost of a driver means the transportation company can afford to spend more money on longer (less congested) routes. The truck will not have to navigate through construction zones because the truck will automatically route around construction zones and reported accidents.
What becomes of the semi truck driver?
It’s a great question. There are 3.5 Million semi truck drivers in the United States today. I don’t believe all truck driving jobs will be eliminated, but I wouldn’t be surprised if 90% are eliminated. Eliminating this job will not spawn new jobs, although it will require other transportation related jobs to evolve.
For example, the semi truck mechanic will now have to troubleshoot and repair the advanced autonomous systems in the truck. There may be a slight number of jobs created due to specialization of the technology, however 90% will be left without a job. That is 3.1 Million people.
It’s a difficult problem that society is going to have to address very soon.